Philly Sports Today

The Pittsburgh Steelers are Super Bowl champions. Again. With their 27-23 come-from-behind win over the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII, the Steelers became the first NFL franchise to win six Super Bowls. While the game as a whole wasn’t particularly exciting for the first three quarters (James Harrison’s 100-yard interception return for a touchdown that ended the first half), the fourth quarter was absolutely tremendous.

Arizona looked dead in the water when they took the ball trailing 20-7 with 11:30 left in the game. Then, their offense started clicking on all cylinders. Kurt Warner went 8-for-8 for 87 yards on a 3:57 drive that culminated in a one-yard touchdown by Larry Fitzgerald on a play that everyone on the planet knew was coming, but nobody could stop. Just like that, it’s 20-14 Steelers and the Cardinals are still very much alive.

Pittsburgh went three-and-out on their next possession. Then Arizona’s drive stalled at Pittsburgh’s 36-yard line. The Cardinals opted to punt and pinned the Steelers at their own one-yard line. Ben Roethlisberger threw an incomplete pass. Willie Parker barely got out of the end zone to avoid a safety, but it could not be avoided. On 3rd and 10 from the one-yard line, the Steelers committed a holding penalty in the end zone. Safety. Put two on the board for ‘Zona. 20-16 Steelers, but Uncle Mo is on Arizona’s sidelines.

Arizona took over at their own 36-yard line. After an incomplete pass on first down, Warner hit Fitzgerald over the middle and he bolted straight down the middle of the field for a 64-yard touchdown. He just straight up out ran everyone. 23-20 Cardinals with 2:37 left in the game. So in less than 9 minutes of game time, when the Cards got the ball trailing 20-7, they scored 16 points, completely erased their deficit, and were in prime position to win the Super Bowl. Incredible for a team that should have been totally demoralized after giving up that touchdown to Harrison to end the first half.

Trailing 23-20, the Steelers took over at their own 22-yard line with 2:30 left in their season. The drive got off to an inauspicious start with a 10-yard penalty that backed Pitt up to their own 12. Big Ben found Santonio Holmes on a 14-yard reception, but then threw an incompletion to set up 3rd-and-6. Roethlisberger and Holmes hooked up again for a 13-yard catch to pick up a first down. Then Big Ben found Nate Washington for an 11-yard pass that moved the ball to midfield. Roethlisberger ran for four yards and then Holmes had a fantastic 40-yard reception that took Pittsburgh down to the Arizona six-yard line with 48 seconds remaining. On first and goal, Roethlisberger was looking for Holmes in the left side of the end zone, but the pass sailed away from him. The Steelers then ran the same exact play with Holmes on the right side of the end zone, and this time he came down with it. Touchdown! 27-23 Steelers! Santonio’s catch was probably the most incredible catch ever in Super Bowl history. Sorry David Tyree, but Holmes actually scored a touchdown on his impossible grab. In fact, in my opinion, that catch rivals “The Catch” (i.e. San Francisco’s Joe Montana to Dwight Clark for the game-winning touchdown in the 1982 NFC Championship Game). With three Cardinals around him, Holmes stretched out to make the catch and somehow was able to keep both toes in bounds. Check out the picture above to see how ridiculous Santonio’s catch was. Just amazing. However, there was still 35 seconds on the clock, which is plenty of time for the Cards.

Kurt Warner and Co. took over at their own 23-yard line, but two plays and 33 yards later, the Cards were in Pittsburgh territory with 15 seconds to play. Unfortunately, it was not to be for Arizona as Warner fumbled and Brett Keisel recovered for the Steelers with five seconds left to seal the 23-27 win and the Super Bowl title. I still think that Warner’s fumble should have been reviewed since his arm was probably going forward, so the Cards deserved one more shot at the end zone. Oh well. It was still an amazing finish. Holmes was named Super Bowl MVP and finished with 9 catches for 131 yards and the game-winning touchdown reception. On the game-winning TD drive, Holmes made four catches for 73 yards. He definitely deserved to win the MVP.

One other note about the Super Bowl is that Kurt Warner played in three this decade and all of them were classics. Warner led the St. Louis Rams over the Tennessee Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV where Rams linebacker Mike Jones tackled Titan’s receiver Kevin Dyson one-yard short of the game-tying touchdown as time expired. Two years later in Super Bowl XXXVI, Warner and the Rams returned to the Big Game as 14-point favorites over an unknown quarterback named Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. This time, Warner was on the other side of a close game as Brady led the Pats on a 9-play, 53 yard drive that set-up Adam Vinatieri’s game-winning 48-yard field goal as time expired. Now this. I think Kurt Warner needs to play in every Super Bowl if they’re all going to be as good as the other three that he played in.

Finally, from a gambling standpoint, I had a very nice season picking against the spread and pretty good Super Bowl in terms of total bets. While I didn’t hit the point spread since I had the Steelers covering six, I nailed 9 of my 14 prop bet picks. Not too bad. I’ll be back for the 2009 NFL season ready to improve on this year’s picks record. Below is a list of all of my picks from yesterday’s game and the result of each:

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over ARIZONA (Wrong)
Over/Under: Over 46.5 (Right)
Pittsburgh rushing yards: Over 113.5 rushing yards (Wrong)
Arizona rushing yards: Under 65.5 rushing yards (Right)
Total Sacks by both teams: Over 5 (Wrong)
First team to call a timeout: Arizona (Wrong)
Total Field Goals: Over 3.5 (Wrong)
Longest Field Goal: Under 45.5 yards (Right)
Longest Touchdown: Over 49.5 yards (Right)
Shortest Touchdown: Under 1.5 yards (Right)
First team to have a penalty: Arizona (Right)
Total Fumbles lost: Over 1.5 (Wrong)
Jersey Number of player that scores first touchdown: Odd (Right)
Distance of first successful field goal: Under 34.5 yards (Right)
National Anthem Length: Over 1 minute and 54 seconds (Right)

Playoffs: 7-4
Overall Season Record: 160-105-5

The big game is finally upon us. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals will take the field in Tampa tonight and one of them will be crowned World Champions. If the Steelers win, they would become the first franchise to win six Super Bowl titles. If the Cardinals win, they would snap a 61-year championship drought, which is the second-longest title-less streak in the four major sports. Only the Chicago Cubs, who have gone 100 years without a World Series title, are a more tortured franchise. So with all that on the table, let’s get to the pick as well as some prop bet picks. As always, “Home team” is in CAPS:

Pittsburgh (-6.5) over ARIZONA
Rationale: The old adage is “Defense wins championships.” The Steelers have the top-ranked D and faced the toughest schedule. Pittsburgh’s defense has carried them for the entire season and was able to make-up for injuries on offense and mask many offensive deficiencies. On the other hand, the Cardinals defense was mediocre and played in arguably the worse division in the NFL. However, they have stepped up during the playoffs, forcing a total of 12 turnovers in three games. The Steelers have also forced a lot of turnovers, with six in their two games. I just can’t buy into Arizona’s D being able to keep up their amazing play, while I know that Pittsburgh’s hard-hitting defense will come to play.

On paper, Arizona has a much better offense. The Cards are led by one of the best playoff QBs of all-time in Kurt Warner and have the best group of receivers in the utterly unstoppable Larry Fitzgerald as well as Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, who both had over 1,000 receiving yards. In the playoffs, Arizona has scored 30, 33, and 32 points, respectively. The big knock on their offense has been their running game. So far in the playoffs, Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have been effective enough to keep opposing defenses more than honest, rushing for 333 yards in three games. If they’re able to run on Blitzburgh, and that’s certainly a big if, Arizona will have a great chance to win the game. However, the Cardinals were the worst running team, the Steelers had the second-ranked run defense. In the playoffs, the Steel Curtain has allowed a total of 88 rushing yards in two games. I don’t see any way that the Cards can run wild on the Steelers. On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t spectacular in the regular season, but they have been better at moving the ball during the playoffs. One of the big reasons for the offensive resurgence is a healthy Willie Parker. Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger has yet to turn the ball over, but he’s still not the type of quarterback that is going to torch an opposing defense.

Overall, I think that Pittsburgh’s defense will continue to be stellar and their offense will be more than adequate. Arizona had a fabulous run, but the clock will strike midnight on their Cinderella season.

Also, here are some prop bets:

Over/Under: Over 46.5
Pittsburgh rushing yards: Over 113.5 rushing yards
Arizona rushing yards: Under 65.5 rushing yards
Total Sacks by both teams: Over 5
First team to call a timeout: Arizona
Total Field Goals: Over 3.5
Longest Field Goal: Under 45.5 yards
Longest Touchdown: Over 49.5 yards
Shortest Touchdown: Under 1.5 yards
First team to have a penalty: Arizona
Total Fumbles lost: Over 1.5
Jersey Number of player that scores first touchdown: Odd
Distance of first successful field goal: Under 34.5 yards
National Anthem Length: Over 1 minute and 54 seconds

Last Week: 1-1
Playoffs: 7-3
Season: 160-104-5

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, I’ve gotten off to a great start in the picks department. There’s no reason why that will change now. Home teams in CAPS:

Philadelphia (-3.5) over ARIZONA
Rationale: The Eagles crushed the Cardinals on Thanksgiving Night, but this is a different Arizona team. However, Philly has caught a lot of breaks up to this point and Donovan McNabb has been playing with purpose ever since his benching. Although they have a long history of choking in big games, the Eagles look like they’re finally ready to break through.

PITTSBURGH (-6) over Baltimore
Rationale: The Steelers looked scary good last week in their win against San Diego and Baltimore’s D was actually torched by Tennessee’s offense all game. In addition, it’s not as hard to beat a team three times as many people think. Teams going for a three-game sweep are something like 11-7 in the past thirty years or so. The clock may finally strike midnight for Joe Flacco’s Cinderella rookie season.

Last Week: 3-1
Playoffs: 6-2
Season: 159-103-5

A nice start to the playoffs, but it’s only going to get tougher to pick winners. Home team in CAPS:

Baltimore (+3) over TENNESSEE
Rationale: These two teams played a slug-fest earlier this year in Baltimore with the Titans edging out a 13-10 victory. The rematch will certainly be another physical affair. Both teams boast very strong defenses and offenses that leave something to be desired. Baltimore certainly has the momentum, but no rookie quarterback has ever won two playoff games. The Ravens may be the most dangerous team in the playoffs right now and I think this game will go down to the wire.

Arizona (+10) over CAROLINA
Rationale: I’m going to steal some information from ESPN’s Bill Simmons: “Since 1990, double-digit favorites in Round 2 are 9-7-1 against the spread and 12-5 straight up. Of those nine covers, the favorite won by 17-plus in every game. Of the six favorites favored by between 10 and 11 points since 1990, four of them lost outright; the other two won by a combined 62 points.” So that trend would mean that Carolina is either going to lose or they will win in a blowout. There’s more bad news for the Cardinals. Arizona is 0-5 on the East Coast this year and are 2-20 in the past 9 years. By the way, the Cats were the only team with an undefeated home record. However, ‘Zona is 4-0 in recent years as a double-digit underdog. That has to count for something. Since everyone is picking Carolina to roll, just like last week when Atlanta was supposed to dominate, I’m going the other way again and siding with the Cardinals.

Philadelphia (+4) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Rationale: There won’t be any surprises when these two teams meet. With snowy and windy conditions expected, defensive play will be key and both teams have strong D’s. I really have no idea which team will win, but it should be very close. Since the Birds have covered nine of their last ten games as an underdog on the road, I’ll take my chances and take the points.

San Diego (+6) over PITTSBURGH
Rationale: I don’t see any way that Darren Sproles goes off against the Steel Curtain like he did last week against the Colts. These two teams met in November and the Steelers won the NFL’s first 11-10 game. Pittsburgh’s offense is just awful and Big Ben is returning from a concussion. The wintry weather will make certain that Heinz Field is a mess, so points will be at a premium. Expect another close game. I also saw a stat where San Diego is something like 0-13 in Pittsburgh during the regular season, but is 2-0 in the Steel City during the playoffs. Just something to keep in mind.

Last Week: 3-1
Season: 156-102-5

A strong finish heading into the playoffs. Let’s try to keep the momentum going. Home teams in CAPS:

ARIZONA (+1) over Atlanta
Rationale: Arizona fans have been waiting to host a playoff game since 1947, when the team was actually in Chicago. The Cards aren’t exactly setting the world on fire by losing four of their last five. Arizona also hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 6 and only went 3-7 outside their division with all of those wins before Week 6. So why pick the Cardinals to beat a Falcons team that has won seven of their last nine and has everyone expecting them to win in a blow out? The Cards went 6-2 at home, while the Falcons were a mere 4-4 on the road. Atlanta is also 1-5 all-time in Arizona. At least one road favorite has to lose, so why not pick one with a rookie QB who has been struggling in recent weeks, a rookie head coach, and pretty shaky defense going against a veteran QB, a coach that has been to the playoffs and won as an assistant, and a high-powered passing game?

Indianapolis (PK) over SAN DIEGO
Rationale: The Colts have won nine in a row and are the hottest team in football after starting the season 3-4. The Chargers started the year 4-8, but got hot at the end and took advantage of Denver’s collapse to steal the AFC West title. In addition, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are both banged up, so that benefits the Colts. However, that could be negated somewhat since the Chargers’ D usually gives the Colts fits. The last three meetings between these two teams were decided by a total of nine points, with San Diego winning two of three. However, Indy won the most recent meeting at San Diego in Week 12 when Adam Vinatieri made a 51-yard field goal as time expired. Expect another close battle with some late game heroics from NFL MVP Peyton Manning.

Baltimore (-3.5) over MIAMI
Rationale: These two teams met in Miami during Week 7 with the Ravens winning in dominant fashion. Now, the Dolphins are a much improved team. Baltimore has lost its last three playoff games since winning at Miami in 2002, and I think they’ll win there once again. The Ravens’ D is just too good and I don’t know how the Dolphins will be able to score enough points to win unless Joe Flacco commits a bunch of turnovers and Chad Pennington somehow starts completing deep balls. However, Flacco is the rookie QB that I expect to advance because he’s surrounded by a great defense.

Philadelphia (-3) over MINNESOTA
Rationale: The Eagles also made the playoffs courtesy of a collapses by Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Chicago in Week 17 and now find themselves with a pretty favorable match-up against the Vikings. Both teams are peaking at the right time, but the Birds just seem like the better team overall. For once, they have the better head coach. Donovan McNabb is light years better than Tarvaris Jackson. Both teams have solid defenses, but Philly should have an easier time containing the pretty one-dimensional Vikes than Minny will have trying to contain all of Philly’s weapons. Also, the Birds have pretty much owned the Vikings in recent years, including a 23-16 win in Minnesota last year. However, Minnesota is a great road team, while Philly is mediocre on the road. That could be the great equalizer. Basically if McNabb gets out-dueled by Jackson, I don’t know how he can be brought back to the team.

Last Week: 12-3-1
Regular Season: 153-101-5