The 2009 NCAA Tournament is finally upon us, and since there is no dominant team this season, the tournament figures to be one of the most unpredictable ones in recent years. Today, I’m going to offer my predictions for all 63 games of March Madness. Next week, I’ll post my predictions for the rest of the tournament starting with the Sweet 16 games. Finally, I’ll do a Final Four preview. Without further ado, here are my picks for every game of the 2009 NCAA Tournament:
Midwest Region
Round 1
1. Louisville over 16. Morehead State
Rationale: #1 seeds are 96-0 in the first round.
9. Siena over 8. Ohio State
Rationale: The Saints are an efficient team on offense with big game experience, including upsetting Vanderbilt in the first round last year as a #13 seed.
5. Utah over 12. Arizona
Rationale: This batch of Wildcats have been underachievers who have been bounced in the first round for two straight years. Arizona’s last NCAA tournament win came in 2006 and nobody in their current rotation was on the roster for that win.
4. Wake Forest over 13. Cleveland State
Rationale: The Demon Deacons have too much talent for the Vikings.
6. West Virginia over 11. Dayton
Rationale: The Mountaineers always bring their “A” game to the tourney and are led by a heady senior guard in Alex Ruoff.
3. Kansas over 14. North Dakota State
Rationale: This young Jayhawks team reminds me a bit of the team that lost to Bradley in 2006. Kansas should definitely be on upset alert because the Bison can put up points with the best of them. With Gus Johnson announcing this game, everything is in place for a potential North Dakota State upset.
7. Boston College over 10. USC
Rationale: This game is a toss-up. The Trojans have more all-around talent, but I’ll roll the dice with Tyrese Rice.
2. Michigan State over 15. Robert Morris
Rationale: The Spartans will cruise.
Round 2
1. Louisville over 9. Siena
Rationale: The Cardinals are just too talented.
4. Wake Forest over 5. Utah
Rationale: The Demon Deacons have the front court to contain Luke Neville and can put up a ton of points.
6. West Virginia over 3. Kansas
Rationale: If Kansas survives North Dakota State, West Virginia will be pose major match-up problems. The Mountaineers have been to the Sweet 16 three of the past four years, so let’s make it four out of five.
7. Boston College over 2. Michigan State
Rationale: The Eagles seem to play to the level of their competition, and with wins this year over North Carolina and Duke, they definitely have a shot against the Spartans.
Regional Semifinals
1. Louisville over 4. Wake Forest
Rationale: This could be one of the most exciting games in the tournament. Louisville has experience and a much better defense.
6. West Virginia over 7. Boston College
Rationale: The Mountaineers are 17-1 when they shoot a higher percentage than their opponents. They shouldn’t have a problem with defense, so as long as their motion offense is working properly, a run to the Elite 8 is not out of the question.
Regional Finals
1. Louisville over 6. West Virginia
Rationale: These two teams played a classic in Morgantown in the last game of the regular season. However, the Cardinals are just a better team and West Virginia’s magical run comes to an end.
West Region
Round 1
1. Connecticut over 16. Chattanooga
Rationale: #1 seeds are 96-0 in the first round.
9. Texas A&M over 8. BYU
Rationale: This is a re-match from an 8/9 game last year, and it’s the same result.
5. Purdue over 12. Northern Iowa
Rationale: The Boilermakers are finally healthy with Robbie Hummel back in the line-up, and that makes them a legitimate Final Four contender.
4. Washington over 13. Mississippi State
Rationale: The Bulldogs are a trendy upset pick because of big man Jarvis Varnado and their SEC Tournament title. However, we’ve seen this story before from the SEC and the Huskies are a very solid team.
11. Utah State over 6. Marquette
Rationale: The state of Utah has to be loving my picks. The Aggies are an efficient offensive team and the Golden Eagles finished just 1-5 since Dominic James broke his foot.
3. Missouri over 14. Cornell
Rationale: It’s always pretty safe to pick against the Ivy League schools.
10. Maryland over 7. California
Rationale: This is another toss-up game. If the Golden Bears are knocking down threes, then they’ll advance. However, I believe that Gary Williams will get the most out of his Terps.
2. Memphis over 15. Cal State Northridge
Rationale: The Tigers are ferocious on both sides of the ball and will run away with the win.
Round 2
1. Connecticut over 9. Texas A&M
Rationale: Hasheem Thabeet and the Huskies are too much for the Aggies.
5. Purdue over 4. Washington
Rationale: The Boilermakers look like the more dangerous team right now, but this could be another great game.
3. Missouri over 11. Utah State
Rationale: The Tigers will overpower the Aggies.
2. Memphis over 10. Maryland
Rationale: The Tigers will overpower the Terrapins.
Regional Semifinals
1. Connecticut over 5. Purdue
Rationale: The Boilermakers are no match for these Huskies. UConn will roll.
2. Memphis over 3. Missouri
Rationale: Another tournament game that could be a classic. Memphis hasn’t lost since December 20th and are 25-0 since freshman sensation Tyreke Evans moved to point guard.
Regional Finals
2. Memphis over 1. Connecticut
Rationale: I know I’ve picked UConn to get this far, but there’s something disconcerning about a team that hasn’t won a postseason game of any kind since 2006. The Tigers return to the Final Four after a minor upset.
East Region
Round 1
1. Pittsburgh over 16. East Tennessee State
Rationale: The Buccaneers hold a special place in my heart after their near upset of Cincinnati in 2004, but #1 seeds are 96-0 in the first round.
8. Oklahoma State over 9. Tennessee
Rationale: This game could really go either way. I’ll give the Cowboys the edge because they’re a better shooting team and the Vols’ D is very suspect.
5. Florida State over 12. Wisconsin
Rationale: While FSU’s tendency to turn the ball over plays right into Wisconsin’s hands, Toney Douglas should be able to carry the Seminoles into round 2.
4. Xavier over 13. Portland State
Rationale: The Musketeers were mediocre down the stretch and the Vikings will be a tough out. However, the X-Men always seem to bring it during the tourney and I like their balance and versatility.
11. VCU over 6. UCLA
Rationale: This is the upset that everybody has that could go horribly wrong. Eric Maynor is a stud and Larry “Hey Now” Sanders is a force inside. The Rams have pulled off the upset as an 11-seed before, but if the Bruins play the D that they’re capable of playing, then UCLA will advance.
3. Villanova over 14. American
Rationale: The Wildcats have a home game in Philly. If the Eagles steal a win, it would be a monumental upset.
7. Texas over 10. Minnesota
Rationale: If A.J. Abrams is on, the Longhorns will move on.
2. Duke over 15. Binghamton
Rationale: No first round scare this year for the Blue Devils.
Round 2
1. Pittsburgh over 8. Oklahoma State
Rationale: The Panthers maul the undersized Cowboys.
5. Florida State over 4. Xavier
Rationale: The Seminoles have the size and athleticism to move on against a struggling Xavier squad.
3. Villanova over 11. VCU
Rationale: The Wildcats are still in Philly.
2. Duke over 7. Texas
Rationale: Texas could give Duke a scare if they can dominate inside, but Gerald Henderson won’t allow the Blue Devils to leave the Dance this early again.
Regional Semifinals
1. Pittsburgh over 5. Florida State
Rationale: Pitt has too many weapons and they beat the ‘Noles again.
2. Duke over 3. Villanova
Rationale: The Blue Devils match up very well with the Wildcats, and Henderson will be the difference-maker again.
Regional Finals
1. Pittsburgh over 2. Duke
Rationale: DeJuan Blair is a man-imal as the Panthers advance to the Final Four.
South Region
Round 1
1. North Carolina over 16. Radford
Rationale: #1 seeds are 96-0 in the first round.
8. LSU over 9. Butler
Rationale: The Tigers are certainly more athletic than the Bulldogs and they have a chip on their shoulder.
12. Western Kentucky over 5. Illinois
Rationale: With Chester Fraizer likely out for the Illini, the Hilltoppers are ready to play Cinderella again.
4. Gonzaga over 13. Akron
Rationale: The Bulldogs are one of the most talented teams in the country.
6. Arizona State over 11. Temple
Rationale: The Sun Devils have a stud in James Harden who can certainly carry them to a win. They also have very underrated Jeff Pendergraph. Herb Sendek is normally good to win at least a game in the tourney.
3. Syracuse over 14. Stephen F. Austin
Rationale: Orange roll.
10. Michigan over 7. Clemson
Rationale: Another incredibly tough game to pick. Clemson Head Coach Oliver Purnell never seems to win in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan can win if their shots are falling, but if not, they’re out.
2. Oklahoma over 15. Morgan State
Rationale: Blake Griffin will be unstoppable in a blowout.
Round 2
1. North Carolina over 8. LSU
Rationale: Even if Ty Lawson doesn’t play, the Tar Heels should still advance.
4. Gonzaga over 12. Western Kentucky
Rationale: The original Cinderella dispatches 2009’s would-be Cinderella.
6. Arizona State over 3. Syracuse
Rationale: The ‘Cuse run out of gas and the Sun Devils take advantage.
2. Oklahoma over 10. Michigan
Rationale: The Wolverines have no chance.
Regional Semifinals
1. North Carolina over 4. Gonzaga
Rationale: If Ty Lawson is healthy, UNC will blow away Gonzaga. However, the Zags certainly are capable of springing the upset.
2. Oklahoma over 6. Arizona State
Rationale: Blake Griffin and the Sooners move on.
Regional Finals
1. North Carolina over 2. Oklahoma
Rationale: The Tar Heels have five players that can score in double figures, and that’s too much firepower for Oklahoma to match.
Final Four
National Semifinals
1. Louisville over 2. Memphis
Rationale: Former Conference USA rivals square off, and the Tigers once again come up short on the big stage. Terrence Williams will carry the battle-tested Cardinals into the National Championship game.
1. North Carolina over 1. Pittsburgh
Rationale: The Tar Heels have been here before and that will be the difference. UNC will not be flat in the Final Four again.
National Championship
1. North Carolina over 1. Louisville
Rationale: The Tar Heels remind me a lot of their 2005 squad that won the National Championship. They’re led by a core of juniors; they have a game-changing point guard; and they have a go-to guy in the paint. The stellar play of Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough will allow UNC to once again cut down the nets.
