Philly Sports Today

What started with 65 hopeful teams is down to 16 contenders. The 2009 NCAA Tournament is about to enter its second weekend, and by Sunday night, only four teams will have a chance at cutting down the nets in Detroit. Next week, I’ll provide the third version of my picks, which will cover the Final Four. Without further ado, here are my picks from the Sweet 16 through the National Championship game:

Midwest Region
Regional Semifinals
1. Louisville over 12. Arizona
Rationale: Arizona’s Cinderella run comes to an end. The Cardinals are too deep, play much better defense, and have a significant coaching advantage.

2. Michigan State over 3. Kansas
Rationale: These two teams met back in January and the Spartans won 75-62. The Jayhawks are too young this year and the Spartans have the manpower and firepower to keep up with Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich.

Regional Finals
1. Louisville over 2. Michigan State
Rationale: This should be a really great game as both teams bring it on the defensive end, but the Cardinals are more athletic and have a better offense.

West Region
Regional Semifinals
1. Connecticut over 5. Purdue
Rationale: UConn is just too much inside for the Boilermakers.

2. Memphis over 3. Missouri
Rationale: This game should be extremely exciting as these two teams are very evenly matched. Whichever team can best limit its turnovers or shoots the ball better from the perimeter will prevail. I give the Tigers a slight edge.

Regional Finals
2. Memphis over 1. Connecticut
Rationale: Memphis hasn’t lost since December 20th and the Tigers will be 28-0 at this point with freshman sensation Tyreke Evans at point guard. Memphis proves that they are the true #1 seed in the region.

East Region
Regional Semifinals
1. Pittsburgh over 4. Xavier
Rationale: The Panthers have too much size inside and are way more athletic than the Musketeers.

2. Duke over 3. Villanova
Rationale: These two teams are very evenly matched. The difference-maker in the game will be Philly native Gerald Henderson, who spurned Villanova in favor of Duke. However, if the Blue Devils go cold from the perimeter, their road may end here.

Regional Finals
1. Pittsburgh over 2. Duke
Rationale: I feel like a broken record, but the Panthers have too much size inside and are way more athletic than the Blue Devils.

South Region
Regional Semifinals
1. North Carolina over 4. Gonzaga
Rationale: If Ty Lawson is healthy, the Tar Heels will blow away the Bulldogs. However, the Zags certainly are capable of springing the upset if they catch enough breaks.

3. Syracuse over 2. Oklahoma
Rationale: Blake Griffin puts up his usual numbers, but Jonny Flynn and Orange D lock up Oklahoma’s guards and advance.

Regional Finals
1. North Carolina over 3. Syracuse
Rationale: UNC just has too much talent for the ‘Cuse, who finally run out of gas.

Final Four
National Semifinals
1. Louisville over 2. Memphis
Rationale: In a match-up of former Conference USA rivals, the Tigers come up short. Terrence Williams will carry the battle-tested Cardinals into the National Championship game.

1. North Carolina over 1. Pittsburgh
Rationale: The Tar Heels have been here before and that experience will be the key difference. UNC will not fall flat again in the Final Four.

National Championship
1. North Carolina over 1. Louisville
Rationale: These Tar Heels remind me a lot of the 2005 UNC squad that won the National Championship. They’re led by a core of juniors; they have a game-changing point guard; and they have a go-to guy in the paint. Ty Lawson and Tyler Hansbrough will not be denied as UNC cuts down the nets for the second time in five seasons.

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