Feb 01 2009
NFL Picks–Super Bowl XLIII
The big game is finally upon us. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals will take the field in Tampa tonight and one of them will be crowned World Champions. If the Steelers win, they would become the first franchise to win six Super Bowl titles. If the Cardinals win, they would snap a 61-year championship drought, which is the second-longest title-less streak in the four major sports. Only the Chicago Cubs, who have gone 100 years without a World Series title, are a more tortured franchise. So with all that on the table, let’s get to the pick as well as some prop bet picks. As always, “Home team” is in CAPS:
Pittsburgh (-6.5) over ARIZONA
Rationale: The old adage is “Defense wins championships.” The Steelers have the top-ranked D and faced the toughest schedule. Pittsburgh’s defense has carried them for the entire season and was able to make-up for injuries on offense and mask many offensive deficiencies. On the other hand, the Cardinals defense was mediocre and played in arguably the worse division in the NFL. However, they have stepped up during the playoffs, forcing a total of 12 turnovers in three games. The Steelers have also forced a lot of turnovers, with six in their two games. I just can’t buy into Arizona’s D being able to keep up their amazing play, while I know that Pittsburgh’s hard-hitting defense will come to play.
On paper, Arizona has a much better offense. The Cards are led by one of the best playoff QBs of all-time in Kurt Warner and have the best group of receivers in the utterly unstoppable Larry Fitzgerald as well as Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, who both had over 1,000 receiving yards. In the playoffs, Arizona has scored 30, 33, and 32 points, respectively. The big knock on their offense has been their running game. So far in the playoffs, Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower have been effective enough to keep opposing defenses more than honest, rushing for 333 yards in three games. If they’re able to run on Blitzburgh, and that’s certainly a big if, Arizona will have a great chance to win the game. However, the Cardinals were the worst running team, the Steelers had the second-ranked run defense. In the playoffs, the Steel Curtain has allowed a total of 88 rushing yards in two games. I don’t see any way that the Cards can run wild on the Steelers. On the other hand, Pittsburgh’s offense wasn’t spectacular in the regular season, but they have been better at moving the ball during the playoffs. One of the big reasons for the offensive resurgence is a healthy Willie Parker. Additionally, Ben Roethlisberger has yet to turn the ball over, but he’s still not the type of quarterback that is going to torch an opposing defense.
Overall, I think that Pittsburgh’s defense will continue to be stellar and their offense will be more than adequate. Arizona had a fabulous run, but the clock will strike midnight on their Cinderella season.
Also, here are some prop bets:
Over/Under: Over 46.5
Pittsburgh rushing yards: Over 113.5 rushing yards
Arizona rushing yards: Under 65.5 rushing yards
Total Sacks by both teams: Over 5
First team to call a timeout: Arizona
Total Field Goals: Over 3.5
Longest Field Goal: Under 45.5 yards
Longest Touchdown: Over 49.5 yards
Shortest Touchdown: Under 1.5 yards
First team to have a penalty: Arizona
Total Fumbles lost: Over 1.5
Jersey Number of player that scores first touchdown: Odd
Distance of first successful field goal: Under 34.5 yards
National Anthem Length: Over 1 minute and 54 seconds
Last Week: 1-1
Playoffs: 7-3
Season: 160-104-5
