Jan 10 2009
NFL Picks–Divisional Round
A nice start to the playoffs, but it’s only going to get tougher to pick winners. Home team in CAPS:
Baltimore (+3) over TENNESSEE
Rationale: These two teams played a slug-fest earlier this year in Baltimore with the Titans edging out a 13-10 victory. The rematch will certainly be another physical affair. Both teams boast very strong defenses and offenses that leave something to be desired. Baltimore certainly has the momentum, but no rookie quarterback has ever won two playoff games. The Ravens may be the most dangerous team in the playoffs right now and I think this game will go down to the wire.
Arizona (+10) over CAROLINA
Rationale: I’m going to steal some information from ESPN’s Bill Simmons: “Since 1990, double-digit favorites in Round 2 are 9-7-1 against the spread and 12-5 straight up. Of those nine covers, the favorite won by 17-plus in every game. Of the six favorites favored by between 10 and 11 points since 1990, four of them lost outright; the other two won by a combined 62 points.” So that trend would mean that Carolina is either going to lose or they will win in a blowout. There’s more bad news for the Cardinals. Arizona is 0-5 on the East Coast this year and are 2-20 in the past 9 years. By the way, the Cats were the only team with an undefeated home record. However, ‘Zona is 4-0 in recent years as a double-digit underdog. That has to count for something. Since everyone is picking Carolina to roll, just like last week when Atlanta was supposed to dominate, I’m going the other way again and siding with the Cardinals.
Philadelphia (+4) over NEW YORK GIANTS
Rationale: There won’t be any surprises when these two teams meet. With snowy and windy conditions expected, defensive play will be key and both teams have strong D’s. I really have no idea which team will win, but it should be very close. Since the Birds have covered nine of their last ten games as an underdog on the road, I’ll take my chances and take the points.
San Diego (+6) over PITTSBURGH
Rationale: I don’t see any way that Darren Sproles goes off against the Steel Curtain like he did last week against the Colts. These two teams met in November and the Steelers won the NFL’s first 11-10 game. Pittsburgh’s offense is just awful and Big Ben is returning from a concussion. The wintry weather will make certain that Heinz Field is a mess, so points will be at a premium. Expect another close game. I also saw a stat where San Diego is something like 0-13 in Pittsburgh during the regular season, but is 2-0 in the Steel City during the playoffs. Just something to keep in mind.
Last Week: 3-1
Season: 156-102-5
