Jan 03 2009
NFL Picks–Wild Card Weekend
A strong finish heading into the playoffs. Let’s try to keep the momentum going. Home teams in CAPS:
ARIZONA (+1) over Atlanta
Rationale: Arizona fans have been waiting to host a playoff game since 1947, when the team was actually in Chicago. The Cards aren’t exactly setting the world on fire by losing four of their last five. Arizona also hasn’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 6 and only went 3-7 outside their division with all of those wins before Week 6. So why pick the Cardinals to beat a Falcons team that has won seven of their last nine and has everyone expecting them to win in a blow out? The Cards went 6-2 at home, while the Falcons were a mere 4-4 on the road. Atlanta is also 1-5 all-time in Arizona. At least one road favorite has to lose, so why not pick one with a rookie QB who has been struggling in recent weeks, a rookie head coach, and pretty shaky defense going against a veteran QB, a coach that has been to the playoffs and won as an assistant, and a high-powered passing game?
Indianapolis (PK) over SAN DIEGO
Rationale: The Colts have won nine in a row and are the hottest team in football after starting the season 3-4. The Chargers started the year 4-8, but got hot at the end and took advantage of Denver’s collapse to steal the AFC West title. In addition, LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are both banged up, so that benefits the Colts. However, that could be negated somewhat since the Chargers’ D usually gives the Colts fits. The last three meetings between these two teams were decided by a total of nine points, with San Diego winning two of three. However, Indy won the most recent meeting at San Diego in Week 12 when Adam Vinatieri made a 51-yard field goal as time expired. Expect another close battle with some late game heroics from NFL MVP Peyton Manning.
Baltimore (-3.5) over MIAMI
Rationale: These two teams met in Miami during Week 7 with the Ravens winning in dominant fashion. Now, the Dolphins are a much improved team. Baltimore has lost its last three playoff games since winning at Miami in 2002, and I think they’ll win there once again. The Ravens’ D is just too good and I don’t know how the Dolphins will be able to score enough points to win unless Joe Flacco commits a bunch of turnovers and Chad Pennington somehow starts completing deep balls. However, Flacco is the rookie QB that I expect to advance because he’s surrounded by a great defense.
Philadelphia (-3) over MINNESOTA
Rationale: The Eagles also made the playoffs courtesy of a collapses by Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Chicago in Week 17 and now find themselves with a pretty favorable match-up against the Vikings. Both teams are peaking at the right time, but the Birds just seem like the better team overall. For once, they have the better head coach. Donovan McNabb is light years better than Tarvaris Jackson. Both teams have solid defenses, but Philly should have an easier time containing the pretty one-dimensional Vikes than Minny will have trying to contain all of Philly’s weapons. Also, the Birds have pretty much owned the Vikings in recent years, including a 23-16 win in Minnesota last year. However, Minnesota is a great road team, while Philly is mediocre on the road. That could be the great equalizer. Basically if McNabb gets out-dueled by Jackson, I don’t know how he can be brought back to the team.
Last Week: 12-3-1
Regular Season: 153-101-5
