Dec 27 2008
NFL Picks–Week 17
It’s the final week of the regular season and playoff spots and seeds are still up for grabs. After being mediocre in the picks department last week, I need to close out 2008 with a bang. Home teams in CAPS:
SAN DIEGO (-8) over Denver
Rationale: It’s the perfect revenge for San Diego after getting screwed over by Referee Ed Hochuli during their Week 2 game in Denver. The Broncos have imploded down the stretch, while the Chargers have resurrected their season. This one should be a shootout with Philip Rivers and Co. getting the last laugh and the AFC West title.
Oakland (+13) over TAMPA BAY
Rationale: The Bucs have lost their last three games. If Nnamdi Asomugha can shut down Antonio Bryant, the Raiders can keep it close.
PITTSBURGH (-11) over Cleveland
Rationale: The Browns haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in their last 20 quarters (i.e. five full games). The Steelers have the best defense in football and can still blow out Cleveland with their back-ups.
Tennessee (-3) over INDIANAPOLIS
Rationale: Both teams are going to be resting their starters, so I’ll take Vince Young over Jim Sorgi.
St. Louis (+14) over ATLANTA
Rationale: The Rams are tough when Steven Jackson is healthy. Will the young Falcons be able to handle the pressure of potentially winning the NFC South? Also, 14 points is a lot of points to have to cover.
New England (-5.5) over BUFFALO
Rationale: Remember when people thought Tom Brady was the best quarterback ever? I think Matt Cassel, who earlier this year started his first game since high school, has proven that Brady is a merely product of Bill Belichick’s system. Cassel and the Pats are on fire.
GREEN BAY (-10.5) over Detroit
Rationale: The Lions have lost 16 straight in Green Bay and there’s no reason to think the 2008 version of the team will snap the streak. In 2007, we saw a team go 16-0 and now in 2008 we get to see a 0-16 team. The one thing that both had in common is that neither won the Super Bowl.
HOUSTON (-2.5) over Chicago
Rationale: The Texans have played well at home, while the only “impressive” road win for the Bears was Week 1 in Indy. I don’t trust Kyle Orton leading this offense. He has been very shaky in recent weeks.
CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Kansas City
Rationale: In the game that nobody wants to see, I’ll take the Bungals mainly because they’re at home and playing slightly better overall.
MINNESOTA (-7) over New York Giants
Rationale: The Vikings need a win to get into the playoffs, while many of the key Giants will get most of the game off.
NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) over Carolina
Rationale: In NFC South match-ups, the home team is 11-0.
Washington (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO
Rationale: If Frank Gore doesn’t play, I have no reason to believe that the 49ers will be able to consistently move the ball or score a lot of points. I’m not saying the Redskins are going to explode offensively, but they have a little more fire power. The Niners 0-3 against the NFC East, while the Skins are 2-1 against the NFC West.
BALTIMORE (-12.5) over Jacksonville
Rationale: Baltimore’s superb D will wreak havoc on Jacksonville’s mediocre O.
ARIZONA (-6.5) over Seattle
Rationale: Beginning in Week 7, the Cardinals are 4-0 against the NFC West and 0-5 against the rest of the NFL. Even though Arizona has struggled, they should get back on track against the Seahawks.
PHILADELPHIA (-1.5) over Dallas
Rationale: When was the last time that Tony Romo won a meaningful game late in the season or in the playoffs? That would be never.
Miami (+3) over NEW YORK JETS
Rationale: It would be a story book ending to see Chad Pennington return to the Meadowlands and lead the Dolphins to the AFC East title.
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 141-98-4
