Dec 23 2008
Thoughts on Week 16 in the NFL
In the NFC East, the New York Giants locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a huge comeback victory over the Carolina Panthers. The defending Super Bowl champs will certainly be a force to be reckoned with in January. Meanwhile, after the Dallas Cowboys seemingly choked away their playoff spot on Saturday night against the Baltimore Ravens and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took one on the chin at home against the San Diego Chargers, the stage was set for the Philadelphia Eagles to seize control of their playoff destiny with a win over the Washington Redskins. However, the Eagles came up short. Again. For some reason, Reggie Brown thought it was an excellent idea to cut his route short of the end zone and the game-tying touchdown. As a result, the Eagles’ playoff chances are essentially nonexistent and the Cowboys are once again in control of their own destiny. The only way that the Birds can make it to the playoffs is with a win over Dallas plus losses by Tampa Bay and either Minnesota or Chicago. At this point, it’s very likely that Sunday’s game against the Cowboys will be Donovan McNabb’s last one in an Eagles uniform. Despite their win on Sunday, the Skins were eliminated from playoff contention. Why couldn’t they be like every other team that was eliminated from the playoff hunt and just roll over and die? Actually, the better question would be why did Andy Reid completely abandon the running game when it was the main reason that the Eagles won three straight games? Reid is definitely on borrowed time with the Birds.
In the NFC North, the Minnesota Vikings blew their opportunity to clinch the division title with their loss to the Atlanta Falcons, but they still control their own destiny. A win over the Giants on Sunday will give the Vikes the division crown. With the G-Men likely to rest most of their starters, Minny could pull out the win. However, if they slip up, the Chicago Bears could seize the division title with a win over the Houston Texans. Da Bears also have slim hopes of a Wild Card spot even if Minny wins. A win over Houston coupled with losses by Dallas and Tampa Bay give Chicago a playoff berth. Finally, the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions would be playing in a totally meaningless game if it wasn’t for the fact that the Lions are 0-15. I expect a really close game with a decent possibility that Detroit avoids complete futility. They clearly have more to play for than the Pack.
In the NFC South, the Carolina Panthers can clinch the division title with a road win over the New Orleans Saints. However, if the Cats slip up, which is very possible since the home team is 11-0 in NFC South match-ups, the Atlanta Falcons can swoop in and steal the division title with a win over St. Louis. If the Falcons complete their magical run to the NFC South title, it would be the sixth consecutive season that the last place team from the previous season finished in first place the next year. After losing their first home game of the season at the worst possible time, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be able to keep their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Oakland Raiders. Tampa will certainly be watching the Dallas/Philadelphia game very closely if they beat the Raiders.
In the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals are lucky that they got off to a hot start and already clinched the division title because they are playing like the division’s worst team. At least the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams still compete. The Cards just get blown out every week now. They definitely look like a one and done in the playoffs.
In the AFC East, the Miami Dolphins, who were 1-15 in 2007, are one win away from a division title. If Chad Pennington can lead the Dolphins into the Meadowlands and beat the New York Jets, who gave up on him in favor of Brett Favre, it would truly be an incredible story. However, a Miami loss would likely allow the New England Patriots to win the division with a win in Buffalo. If the Pats somehow slip up and the Jets win, then Favre and Co. will win the division and go to the playoffs. A Wild Card spot is also possible for these three teams with a win or a tie and a loss by Baltimore. The Bills are the only team without anything to play for, so I expect a motivated Pats squad to soundly beat them in Buffalo.
In the AFC North, the Steelers have already clinched the division and a first round bye, so they’ll likely pack it in this week. Of all of the playoff teams, Pittsburgh is probably the most banged up and could benefit from the extra rest. However, the Cleveland Browns are so offensively inept that the Steelers’ back-ups could realistically blow them out. The Browns haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in five games (i.e. 20 quarters of football), including getting shutout at home by the Cincinnati Bengals. Romeo Crennel can pretty much kiss his job goodbye. Baltimore has a must-win game at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars and should be able to get the job done. If they slip-up, the Patriots, Jets, or Dolphins will be more than happy to snag their spot. The Bengals play a meaningless game against the Kansas City Chiefs.
In the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a dominating win over the Steelers. The Titans will travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts, who are the hottest team in the league, in a battle of teams who already know their playoff seeds. However, these two teams could see each other again in the playoffs. I still don’t think the Colts have the goods to win the AFC, but they put together an amazing run after starting out 3-4. The Jaguars and Texans both have games with playoff implications, but unfortunately for them, it’s their opponents who are fighting for playoff spots. Although, both of these teams are frisky enough to spring an upset. The Texans, who are hosting the Bears, have a much better chance of winning than the Jaguars do of winning in Baltimore.
In the AFC West, the Denver Broncos have almost completely choked away the division title. After Week 14, Denver was 8-5 and San Diego was 5-8. The division championship seemed inevitable for the Broncos. Then Denver lost back-to-back, while San Diego has won three straight. Now the two teams will square off in San Diego with the AFC West title on the line. The Broncs escaped with a 39-38 win in the first meeting, which was marred by a controversial call by Referee Ed Hochuli. Trailing 38-31 late in the fourth quarter, Denver reached San Diego’s 1-yard line, but on second-and-goal, Denver QB Jay Cutler reared back to throw and the ball slipped out of his hands, bounced off the grass and into San Diego linebacker Tim Dobbins’s arms. Hochuli blew his whistle when the ball came out, ruling it an incomplete pass. A review showed that it should have been ruled a fumble. Instant replay rules, however, don’t allow the opponent to gain possession in such situations. Two plays after his fumble was overruled, Cutler hit Eddie Royal from 4 yards to make it 38-37. Mike Shanahan went for the 2-point conversion with 29 seconds left and Jay Cutler hit Royal again to give Denver the win. The Chargers have been waiting the entire season to get their revenge on the Broncos, and with momentum on their side, I think San Diego will handily defeat Denver, who have placed seven running backs on injured reserve this season, and complete their improbable run to the playoffs. The Raiders and Chiefs also have games this week, but their seasons ended a while ago so there’s no need to discuss them.
Projected AFC Playoff teams through Week 16
East: Miami (Last Week’s Projection: Miami)
North: Pittsburgh (Last Week’s Projection: Pittsburgh)
South: Tennessee (Last Week’s Projection: Tennessee)
West: San Diego (Last Week’s Projection: Denver)
Wild Card: Indianapolis (Last Week’s Projection: Indianapolis)
Wild Card: Baltimore (Last Week’s Projection: Baltimore)
Projected NFC Playoff teams through Week 16
East: New York Giants (Last Week’s Projection: New York Giants)
North: Minnesota (Last Week’s Projection: Minnesota)
South: Atlanta (Last Week’s Projection: Carolina)
West: Arizona (Last Week’s Projection: Arizona)
Wild Card: Carolina (Last Week’s Projection: Tampa Bay)
Wild Card: Dallas (Last Week’s Projection: Dallas)
