Oct 18 2008
NFL Picks–Week 7
I had a decent week last week. Now I just have to ride the momentum. Home teams are in CAPS:
Indianapolis (-1.5) over GREEN BAY
Rationale: The Colts look like they’re finally starting to click on offense. Peyton Manning is starting to play like Peyton Manning again, and that is a huge problem for opposing defenses. I was shocked that they lit up Baltimore’s D last week as much as they did. However, Aaron Rodgers isn’t playing poorly either. He’s seventh in the NFL in passing yards. Neither team has a good defense, but I don’t know hoe the Pack will be able to slow down Indy’s aerial assault with their injured secondary. Peyton has the Colts looking like a dangerous team. All the D has to do is keep them in the game and give Peyton the ball at the end and they’ll come away with a win.
BUFFALO (PK) over San Diego
Rationale: West Coast teams playing the 1 o’clock game do not typically perform well. Look what happened when the Chargers went into Miami in Week 5. They took one on the chin. It’s also not going to help them that receivers Chris Chambers and Buster Davis are out. I think the Bills are going to come back strong after their bye week and jump on San Diego early. Buffalo also has a good enough D to erase LaDainian Tomlinson. This game will be a statement win for either team.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-10.5) over San Francisco
Rationale: The 49ers are a bad team and the Giants are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder after getting embarrassed by the Browns on Monday Night. I think the G-Men are going to lay it on real thick against J.T. O’Sullivan and Co. If the Eagles can wreck San Fran, then the Giants should be able to maul them. Brandon Jacobs will have a big day and Eli Manning will connect with Plaxico Burress for at least one TD.
Pittsburgh (-9.5) over CINCINNATI
Rationale: Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing again and the line is under 10? I can’t see the Bengals being able to score enough points on the Steel Curtain to keep it within 10. They’re just so bad. Even though Pittsburgh is extremely banged up, I still think this will be a romp. Hines Ward should shred Cincy’s poor excuse for a defense. Maybe Santonio Holmes will actually start being good too.
Tennessee (-9) over KANSAS CITY
Rationale: With Larry Johnson suspended, how will the Chiefs be able to move the ball against the ridonkulous Titans D? Tennessee has a very good chance at a shutout. They will wreak havoc on Brody Croyle. Even though Kerry Collins doesn’t lead the most explosive offense, the Titans will roll. Tennessee should have a big day on the ground with Chris Johnson leading the way. This will be another ugly game this week.
CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota
Rationale: The battle for first in the NFC North will be a defensive struggle, largely due to the fact that neither team has a great offense. Chicago is coming off of a bad loss to Atlanta, a game in which they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, and the Vikings barely got by Detroit. These teams are pretty even defensively, but I’m giving the edge to Da Bears because they’re at home and Kyle Orton leads a slightly more explosive offense. Who would’ve thought “Kyle Orton” and “explosive offense” would ever be used in the same sentence without the phrase “does not lead an” in between them?
CAROLINA (-3) over New Orleans
Rationale: The NFC South is a wacky division. All of the teams are amazing at home and terrible on the road. Carolina looked horrible in Tampa last week and the Saints looked unstoppable at home against Oakland. I think the Cats will bounce back and shut down the high-powered Nawlins offense. The porous Saints D is just what Jake Delhomme needs to get the passing game back on track.
Dallas (-7.5) over ST. LOUIS
Rationale: Dallas will not lose much offense with Brad Johnson running the team, assuming that Tony Romo sits this one out. The Cowboys just have too much fire power on offense, and with newly-acquired stud wideout Roy Williams, the rich just got richer. They probably gave up too much to get him, but either way, they have him, Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton, and Marion Barber. If they can’t cover against a lowly Rams team, the ‘Boys have major issues. However, with the way Dallas’ defense has been playing, anything can happen.
HOUSTON (-9.5) over Detroit
Rationale: I will not pick a team with Dan Orlovsky at quarterback to cover on the road under any circumstances. The Lions are probably battling the Chiefs and Bengals for the title of “Most Horrible Team.” Even though the Texans have had a disappointing and underachieving defense, I think their offense is going to light up the Lions like a Hanukkah menorah. Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson are in line for big games. Houston looks like they’re going to start getting a little frisky and could rip off a few wins in a row.
MIAMI (-2.5) over Baltimore
Rationale: The Ravens are another offensively challenged team and Joe Flacco has not shown any indication that he is going to stop being horrible any time soon. The Dolphins have been a nice surprise and already have wins over the Patriots and Chargers. Chad Pennington isn’t making mistakes, Ronnie Brown is playing well, and the defense has been better than expected. This will probably be a pretty low-scoring game, but Miami’s offense is light years ahead of Baltimore’s O. That’s pretty sad.
New York Jets (-3) over OAKLAND
Rationale: Oakland is a very bad team. The Jets aren’t a special team, but they’re not bad. They can put points on the board and are capable of wrecking a bad team. Brett Favre should be able to score enough to cover the spread. If New York is thinking about a playoff run, this is a game that they must win. This looks like one of those games where Favre is going to connect with one guy for 3 TDs. However, it’s a complete mystery who that’ll be. Jerricho Cotchery is due for one of those games though.
Cleveland (+7.5) over WASHINGTON
Rationale: Cleveland’s offense looks like they’ve finally woken up. The Redskins may be a little shell shocked after last week’s crushing loss to the Rams. I think this can be a really close game and the Browns have a decent chance of stealing a win. Despite all of Washington’s success, they have not won a game by more than a touchdown this season. Hopefully, that trend continues
Seattle (+10.5) over TAMPA BAY
Rationale: Senaca Wallace should be good enough to keep this game in single digits, or at least 10. I don’t think Seattle has any real chance of winning this game, but I’m looking for them to be competitive. They were competitive at home last week against the Packers and that was with Charlie Frye. Wallace is at least a little bit better. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bucs crushed the Seahawks. I really don’t like laying a big number with a team that has a questionable offense.
Denver (+3) over NEW ENGLAND
Rationale: It’s pretty crazy how many bad quarterbacks there are in the NFL right now. I really can’t pick Matt Cassel to beat anyone unless they’re really bad, like San Francisco two weeks ago. Denver has a solid offense and if their defense is just decent, they should easily win this game as long as New England’s D doesn’t play out of their minds. However, I don’t think the Pats have the personnel on defense to be able to play out of their minds. If Vincent Jackson can light up New England, imagine what Brandon Marshall will do to them.
Last Week: 8-6
Season: 43-42-3
