Oct 11 2008
NFL Picks–Week 6
I’m clearly not the best person at picking NFL games against the spread. However, that will not stop me, just like it doesn’t stop any other “experts” who are just as bad at it. Home teams are in CAPS:
Chicago (-3) over ATLANTA
Rationale: I just cannot buy into the Falcons. Their 3 wins are against awful defenses (Detroit, Kansas City, and Green Bay). However, the Bears are one of the better defensive teams and somehow Kyle Orton has given them a passing game. Somehow Orton is 8th in the NFL in total passing yards. I guess playing the Lions will do that to your stats. Either way, who would have thought that Orton would be quarterbacking a team that has a very real chance at the playoffs? Not me, that’s for sure. Oh yeah, that Matt Forte kid is pretty good too. I think Matt Ryan will struggle against the tough Chicago D and Michael Turner will be contained to some degree.
MINNESOTA (-13) over Detroit
Rationale: The Lions are in total disarray despite firing Matt Millen. Detroit is probably the worst team in the NFL. They don’t do anything right. The Lions also allow 180 yards rushing per game. After getting bottled up last week, Adrian Peterson is licking his chops at the chance to run through the porous Detroit D. A.P. may be able to challenge his record-setting 296 yard performance. This game could, and probably will, get very, very, ugly for Lions fans. What else is new?
Miami (+3) over HOUSTON
Rationale: The Dolphins can move the ball on offense (10th in yards per game) and they can stop the other team from moving it on them (7th in scoring defense and yards allowed per game). Bill Parcells has miraculously made the Fins relevant again. Relevant might be too strong of a word, but at least they’re not the worst team anymore. Somehow the Wildcat formation has resurrected Ronnie Brown’s career and Chad Pennington looks rejuvenated. I don’t like Houston’s quarterback situation. Matt Schaub has been banged up and Sage Rosenfels just sucks. Miami should be able to stay right in the thick of the AFC East race.
INDIANAPOLIS (-4) over Baltimore
Rationale: If it wasn’t for the late-game magic of Peyton Manning, the Colts would be winless. Indy is just too old and injured to keep this up. However, Joe Flacco has struggled recently, so Baltimore’s offense is more questionable than usual. I can’t see Flacco beating Manning on the road.
NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Oakland
Rationale: The Saints’ D is pretty bad, but their offense is very good. Oakland is mediocre in all facets of the game. They have a long way to go before they can even think about being competitive. JaMarcus Russell plays like he completely zoned out when he sat on the sideline for 12 weeks last year. He should be a lot further along in his development as a quarterback. Maybe Justin Fargas and/or Darren “Run DMC” McFadden will be able to keep the Raiders close, but I doubt it. I think Drew Brees and Reggie Bush are going to carve up Oakland all afternoon.
NEW YORK JETS (-6) over Cincinnati
Rationale: I probably would have picked the Bengals if Carson Palmer was playing because they’ve been playing a lot better in recent weeks. At this point you should know that I don’t think the Jets are anything spectacular. However, Harvard Alum Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center for Cincy. There’s no way I can pick a team with a quarterback who was completely overmatched against the Browns. How bad do you have to be to have a career QB Rating of 55.3? Pretty bad I would say. There’s no way he’ll be able to keep up with Brett Favre and Co.
Carolina (+1.5) over TAMPA BAY
Rationale: Carolina’s defense is one of the best in the league. Tampa’s offense is magically one of the best as well. At least in yards per game. This game will be a battle because these teams are so evenly matched. If Carolina wins, they will clearly be the class of the NFC South. If the Bucs can defend home field, then this division is wide open. I think the Cats will have enough offense to claw their way to a win.
St. Louis (+13) over WASHINGTON
Rationale: The Rams haven’t done a lot right this year, while the Redskins have been one of the best teams in the league. I’ve taken a large amount of points a few times with the Rams this year and gotten burned. However, I have a hunch that St. Louis will finally be competitive in the game and keep it under two touchdowns or I could be totally wrong. For all I know, Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis will roll up 50 points on the hapless Rams. I hit Cincy with the points over Dallas last week, so why not the Rams with the points this week?
DENVER (-3) over Jacksonville
Rationale: David Garrard was supposed to be better than this. The Jaguars are no better now than they were with Byron Leftwich at QB. They still stink on offense. All their games have been close, and if they could actually move the ball and score points, they’d probably be undefeated. The Broncos’ offense has been so good all year and the defense finally showed up last week. If Mike Shanahan can ever get his offense and defense to click at the same time, the Broncs would be a scary team. Denver should be able to continue its winning ways at home.
Dallas (-4.5) over ARIZONA
Rationale: I don’t buy into the hype around Arizona’s offense. Aren’t the Cardinals always supposed to take “the next step” and beat an elite team and don’t they always fail? Statistically, these two teams are evenly matched, but I think the Cowboys just have too many weapons. Tony Romo, Terrell Owens, Marion Barber, Jason Witten, Felix Jones. The list goes on and on. The Cards are a good team at home, but I think the ‘Boys can still cover.
Philadelphia (-4.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Rationale: Brian Westbrook is out, so the Eagles pretty much have no offense. Without B-West, the Birds just cannot move the ball. The 49ers are not a good team by any means, but they should be good enough to keep it close for a while. If the Eagles had Westbrook, it would be an easy cover. Now that he’s out, it’s going to be tough. I’ve picked the Birds to cover every week, so why change now, right?
Green Bay (+1) over SEATTLE
Rationale: Both of these teams are scuffling. The Seahawks have only been able to beat the Rams, while the Packers have lost their last three games. Green Bay can’t run the ball and Seattle can’t throw it. Their Ds are pretty much the same. Both of them have been bad. I think Seattle is just too beaten up to be able to pull this one out. They’re not a good team and people need to start realizing that. The Pack should be able to bounce back.
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over New England
Rationale: It’s tough to get a read on either of these teams from week to week. I don’t trust Matt Cassel to beat a decent opponent and I don’t think Norv Turner is good enough to out-coach Bill Belichick. Something has to give. This game is a must-win for the Chargers with road games against Buffalo and New Orleans on the horizon. A loss to the Pats and they may spiral to 2-6 heading into their bye week. I don’t think LaDainian Tomlinson is going to be able to snap out of his season-long funk, so it’s all going to be on Philip Rivers to get the win. With Chris Chambers likely to miss the game, another receiver will need to step up. I’m not really confident in picking San Diego, but if they’re ever going to beat New England, it’s going to be when Tom Brady is on the sidelines.
New York Giants (-7.5) over CLEVELAND
Rationale: The Giants haven’t lost since December 29, 2007. That’s a really long time. Thus year’s team may actually be better than last year’s Super Bowl Champion. On the contrary, this year’s Cleveland team is certainly much worse than last year’s almost playoff team. The Giants also have not lost a road game since September 9, 2007. Eli Manning is finally playing like a franchise quarterback and the defense has been dominant. The G-Men are going to roll over the Browns. Bank on it.
Last Week: 5-7-2
Season: 35-36-3
