Oct 08 2008
ALCS and NLCS Predictions
Los Angeles Dodgers v. Philadelphia Phillies
Fresh off of their three-game sweep against the heavily-favored Cubs, the Dodgers are coming into the NLCS on an absolute tear having won 22 of their last 31 games. Manny Ramirez has truly done wonders to this team which was dead in the water until he arrived. You also cannot overlook how much better L.A. is with a healthy Rafael Furcal at the top of the order. With Furcal in the lead-off spot and Manny in the three-hole, it takes a lot of pressure off of their young players. Manny is also one of the few players in baseball history that can carry a team. The Dodgers’ pitching has carried over its regular season success into the playoffs. Derek Lowe and Greg Maddux provide leadership and experience, while Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Clayton Kershaw are just filthy. I think their biggest problem will be when they turn it over to the ‘pen. The Phils are going to have to run out to early leads if they want to have a chance in this series.
It’s interesting to note that with all of the talk about how hot the Dodgers are, the Phillies have also won 22 of their last 31 games. There definitely seems to be a media bias about that as everyone seems to be drooling over the prospect of Manny facing the Red Sox in the World Series. So far in the playoffs, the Phillies pitching has been outstanding. “King” Cole Hamels has thrown like an ace, Brett Myers showed flashes of his late-July to mid-September self, and “Fat” Joe Blanton even threw a gem in the NLDS-clincher. I’m a little worried about Jamie Moyer’s performance so far and the fact that guys like Manny Ramirez seem to feast on his pitches. However, I think he should be fine as long as the umps stop squeezing him. The bullpen has also been solid, although not as solid as I would have liked to see. As long as Brad Lidge is picking up saves, I really don’t care how he gets it done. My main concern is with the offense. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have once again gone missing in October. Same for Pat Burrell, at least until Game 4 of the NLDS. Luckily, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth picked up the slack. If Utley, Howard, and Burrell stay cold, the Phillies will be in trouble.
Prediction:Phillies over Dodgers in seven games. Nobody is giving the Phillies a shot. The Phillies mashed the Dodgers in four games at Citizens Bank Park this season, and although they were swept in La-La Land, the Phillies played them extremely tough and should have won three of the four if not for banished starter Kyle Kendrick and a bullpen which was struggling mightily at the time. Hamels needs to once again set the tone early and Myers needs to continue to pitch well. I think that the Phillies’ offense will come around and the Phightins will take care of business. They beat the best pitcher acquired at the trade deadline in the NLDS and now its time for them to beat the best hitter acquired at the trade deadline.
Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays
How good is Jon Lester? Really Good? Ridiculously Good? Extremely Good? Yes, yes, and yes. The kid is a shooting star and is Boston’s ace. That’s really scary on a team with Daisuke Matsuzaka and Josh Beckett. In his two post-season starts this year, Lester is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 14 innings. In his only post-season start last year, which just happened to be the World Series-clinching game, Lester allowed 0 runs and three hits while striking out three in 5.2 innings. So basically if you’re facing Lester on the mound in October, you’re probably not going to score a run unless it’s unearned. Dice-K and Beckett are going in Games 1 and 2, but it’s not like that is catching a break for the opposition. You also have to love closer Jonathan Papelbon at the back end. He’s straight money in the playoffs. This Red Sox team is not as explosive offensively since they traded Manny Ramirez, but they have a nice mix of youngsters (Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie) and veterans (David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Jason Bay, Kevin Youkilis) that continues to produce and come up with big hits. Oh yeah, they’re also the defending World Series champions and are in their fourth ALCS in the last six seasons. That definitely counts for something.
On the other hand, the Rays are destiny’s darling. Maybe it has something to do with their off-season exorcism that took the “Devil” out of their name? I’m willing to bet it has more to do with all of their young stars coming into their own at once. With Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and B.J. Upton, the Rays are an exciting team that is fun to watch. They’re also one of the best defensive teams in the game. My major concern with them is that they don’t really have an ace in their rotation. They have a fantastic bullpen that can certainly close out games, but that won’t matter if their starters don’t get the job done. Who knows how their young starting rotation will respond with a trip to the World Series on the line? It could go either way. The Rays have been counted out all season and look where it got them–eight wins away from a World Series championship.
Prediction:Red Sox over Rays in six games. I think this is when the clock strikes midnight for baseball’s Cinderella Rays. I don’t see any way how Boston can lose this series unless Tampa’s starters can equalize Lester and Co. The Rays won the season series 10-8 and were 8-1 over the Sawks at the Trop. Boston was 7-2 against Tampa at Fenway, but they did drop their last two games against them at home. The Rays definitely will not be scared of the Red Sox, but I think Boston’s pitching is too good. Tampa is built to be a really good team for a long time, but this is the time when Lester, Dice-K, Beckett, and Papelbon shine.
