Sep 27 2008
NFL Picks–Week 4
Week 3 was not particularly kind to my picks. I smell a bounce-back in Week 4. As always, home teams are in CAPS:
TENNESSEE (-3) over Minnesota
Rationale: The Vikings are terribly overrated and the Titans are terribly underrated. Tennessee’s defense has been outstanding and Chris Johnson has been “The Truth.” It’s also pretty scary that Jeff Fisher has been holding him back somewhat. Imagine what he will do when he is completely unleashed on the league. Also, Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor are both questionable. If neither is 100%, the forecast for the Vikings will be little to no offense with a chance of blowout.
CINCINNATI (-3.5) over Cleveland
Rationale: The Battle of Ohio will determine which team gets its first win of the year. Cleveland hasn’t exhibited any signs of life in their three losses. At least the Bengals were able to force OT against the Giants on the road last week. I think that this game will be a high scoring affair with Cincy taking it by a touchdown or so.
Denver (-9.5) over KANSAS CITY
Rationale: The number may be a little high, but Denver has been putting on an offensive show this season. I really don’t see any way that the Chiefs will be able to stop Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, and that rushing attack. I also don’t know how Kansas City will be able to score points. Even though the Broncos have forgotten the defensive part of their game plan this year, the Chiefs’ offense is putrid.
San Francisco (+5) over NEW ORLEANS
Rationale: This has the potential to be a very high-scoring game since both teams can put up points and neither is that great defensively. The Saints are also ravaged with injuries on offense, especially now that Jeremy Shockey will be out for a few weeks. I think New Orleans should be able to pull this one out, but the 49ers should certainly be in this game at the end. J.T. O’Sullivan may have an upset brewing for Nawlins.
Arizona (+1.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Rationale: I think the Jets are extremely overrated and the Cardinals are only somewhat overrated. I don’t think New York has played particularly well any week this season and they are running a very plain offense. Brett Favre will also not be 100% and he hasn’t been that fantastic when he was healthy. I think the Cards’ high-powered offense should be able to put up enough points to steal a win.
TAMPA BAY (-1) over Green Bay
Rationale: I don’t like the way that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense have played since the second half of their game against the Lions. Green Bay’s offense has only scored two touchdowns in their last six quarters. Now they’re going on the road to face a stingy Bucs D. Tampa is another team that has flown under the radar a bit, and they should be good enough to beat the Packers at home. Rodgers better get ready for a media firestorm in Green Bay if he takes one on the chin.
CAROLINA (-7) over Atlanta
Rationale: This game looks like a slam dunk. I expect Carolina’s D to wreak havoc on Matt Ryan and the Falcons. This game shouldn’t be close. If the Falcons keep it under double-digits, that should be a moral victory.
JACKSONVILLE (-7) over Houston
Rationale: The Jaguars should be able to ride the momentum from their last-second win over the Colts for at least this game. I don’t think Houston is as good as they were hyped up to be and I don’t think that Jacksonville has played as well as they should be. I expect another big day on the ground for Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. However, if Houston can get Steve Slaton going, they may have a shot to steal a win or at least cover.
ST. LOUIS (+8) over Buffalo
Rationale: The Rams have not come close to covering a single game this season. On the other hand, I don’t like the way that the Bills have played down or up to the level of their competition. That’s not a good sign for trying to cover 8 points on the road. I think this could be the week that Steven Jackson finally gets it going. The Bills very well could win in a blowout if Marshawn Lynch is able to carve up the Rams’ D. Not having Roscoe Parrish is going to hurt Trent Edwards.
Washington (+11) over DALLAS
Rationale: This number is too big for a rivalry that always seems to produce close games. All the Redskins need to do is keep the game close in order to send a message to the rest of the NFL that they are a solid football team. Dallas should prevail in this one mainly because they just ooze with talent all over the field, but I expect the ‘Skins to be competitive.
San Diego (-7.5) over OAKLAND
Rationale: I think the Chargers are finally back. Oakland is still one of the worst teams in the league despite keeping the game close at Buffalo last week. LaDainian Tomlinson always has big games against the porous Oakland defense and this game should be no different. San Diego should win easily.
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO
Rationale: Did you see how the Eagles’ D absolutely mauled Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers last week? Imagine what they’re capable of against a mediocre QB and very average offense. Even with a banged up Donovan McNabb and with Brian Westbrook probably not going to play, this is the Birds’ game to lose. Donny Mac also doesn’t lose in Chicago. As long as the defense plays like they did last week, Philly will roll.
BALTIMORE (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH
Rationale: The Steelers are very banged up and the Ravens’ D has been playing very well. I expect a low-scoring defensive struggle similar to the Steelers/Browns game in Week 2. The Steelers should be able to pull this one out, but it’s going to be a nail-biter that really could go either way.
Last Week: 8-8
Season: 24-22-1
