NFL Picks–Week 3
Let’s keep the Week 2 momentum going. As always, home teams are in CAPS.
BUFFALO (-9.5) over Oakland
Rationale: The Bills have been one of my sleeper teams, so I’m going to continue to ride them. Buffalo has a very underrated defense that should give JaMarcus Russell headaches all afternoon. Justin Fargas and “Run DMC” Darren McFadden are both banged up so my man Michael Bush should see a decent amount of carries and is a Fantasy sleeper this week. Marshawn Lynch is starting to emerge as a workhorse back and Trent Edwards has quietly put together two solid weeks. I also cannot put my faith in the Raiders since Lane Kiffin will be fired as soon as they lose their next game.
ATLANTA (-5.5) over Kansas City
Rationale: This is a match-up of two awful teams. I have no confidence that Tyler Thigpen will be able to do anything offensively for Kansas City. If you’re the third-string QB behind Brody Croyle and Damon Huard, you have to be insanely terrible. The Chiefs showed no life at home last week against the Raiders and were gashed by the run. This should be a big week for Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood. Somehow Matt Ryan will begin his NFL career 2-1. Amazing.
CHICAGO (-3) over Tampa Bay
Rationale: This will be a defensive struggle to say the least. Neither team can really pass the ball, so whichever team gets their ground game going should win this game. Matt Forte has been a stud so far and I think he’s going to continue to have success. However, I’m a little concerned that the Bears totally fell apart last week. With the game in Chicago and the Bucs are 4-13 on the road since 2006, the Bears will be able to get by.
TENNESSEE (-4.5) over Houston
Rationale: The Titans have one of the elite defensive units in the NFL. They also have Brian Westbrook 2.0 in the form of rookie Chris Johnson. However, they don’t have much else on offense. Then again, the Texans don’t really have much except Andre Johnson. This game should be fairly low-scoring, but the Titans keep winning.
Carolina (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
Rationale: The Vikings finally figured out that Tarvaris Jackson should not be starting at quarterback in the NFL. Well, at least not for a team that should be better than 0-2. However, now that Adrian Peterson is injured, I don’t see how they’re going to beat a team as good as Carolina. The Panthers defense has rebounded from a rough and injury-ridden 2007 campaign and is once again the team’s backbone. Jake Delhomme also gets Steve Smith back from suspension, so look for him to find the end zone at least once. This game could get ugly.
NEW ENGLAND (-12.5) over Miami
Rationale: The Patriots proved that there is life after Tom Brady. Matt Cassel was good enough to win on the road against a decent Jets squad, so he should have no problem at home against the lowly Dolphins. It will be interesting to see if Bill Belichick decides to open up the passing game more, especially with injuries to Laurence Maroney and LaMont Jordan. If Cassel can start to connect with Randy Moss and Wes Welker and the defense continues to play out of its mind, this team will be very much in the playoff hunt.
Cincinnati (+13) over New York Giants
Rationale: The Bengals are absolute garbage. Who knew that a team with Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson/Ocho Cinco, and T.J. Houshmanzadeh would absolutely suck at throwing the ball? The Giants defense has been very solid the past two weeks and that is bad news for Cincy. The Bengals haven’t been competitive in either of their games, but I think the number is just too big.
Arizona (+3) over WASHINGTON
Rationale: There’s something about this Cardinals team under Kurt Warner. They just seem to win. Since the NFC West is so bad, whoever wins 8 or 9 games is going to take that division. Going 3-0 to start the season would be a good start. On the flip side, I liked the way the Redskins offense performed last week against the Saints. This one should be another shootout in D.C.
PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) over Pittsburgh
Rationale: The Eagles showed they have an explosive offense in their Week 2 loss to Dallas. However, the offense was also very ineffective in the second half, which should be cause for major concern. They also proved that their defense is very suspect as they were carved up by Tony Romo and Co. The Steelers edged out the Browns in a defensive struggle, but Ben Roethlisberger seems to be playing with a bum shoulder. The Eagles are going to need to stop the run and hit Big Ben early on to set the tone. If they can do that, I think the offense will be good enough to get a big win over their cross-state rivals.
DENVER (-5.5) over New Orleans
Rationale: The Broncos are another team that I really like so far. Jay Cutler-to-Brandon Marshall is as good of a QB/WR combo as any in the NFL right now. The Saints are pretty much a one-dimensional team with their reliance on the pass. Champ Bailey and Dre’ Bly are going to make it really tough on Drew Brees, especially without a go-to receiver. Denver will also be riding high off of last week’s big win over the Chargers. They should be good enough to move to 3-0.
Jacksonville (+5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Rationale: The Colts needed all of Peyton Manning’s magic to steal a win from the Vikings. However, Jacksonville is one team in recent years that has consistently had success against the Colts. Now that Bob Sanders is out, the Indy D is very suspect. In the words of the legendary WWF announcer Jim Ross, “This one’s going to be a slobber-knocker!” That should favor the Jags. They’re too good of a team to start 0-3 and the Colts continue to look very old. Expect a nail-biter in Indy.
SAN FRANCISCO (-4) over Detroit
Rationale: This is another battle of bad teams. However, at least the 49ers have some sort of defense. The Lions play like they’re afraid to make a tackle or defend passes. It’s going to be another long day for Matt Millen’s men. San Fran should roll over Mo-Town. On a side note, Calvin Johnson has become a total monster and is definitely overshadowing Roy Williams. It’s a shame he plays on such an awful team.
St. Louis (+9.5) over SEATTLE
Rationale: Ah, yes. Another classic NFC West battle between two teams that are going nowhere fast. Seattle gave up 33 points to the 49ers at home last week and lost in overtime. The Rams got steamrolled by the Giants at home. Something has to give in this war of the winless. I don’t know who’s going to win, but I don’t think Seattle is good enough to win by 10. The Seahawks have nobodies at wide receiver and a QB who’s totally battered. I think Steven Jackson is going to have a good day and at least keep St. Louie in it.
BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Cleveland
Rationale: I normally don’t like to take rookie quarterbacks, but Joe Flacco is backed by a strong defense and has had two weeks to prepare for the Browns. Cleveland has been very disappointing to most people, but not me since I figured they would be busts this season. The Browns have yet to prove me wrong. I’m expecting another low-scoring affair with Baltimore by a field goal. Maybe 13-10 or something in that range.
Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY
Rationale: The Cowboys are once again in the Game of the Week. I think this will be another high-scoring affair at Lambeau Field. Ultimately, I think the Cowboys have too much fire power for the Pack. Aaron Rodgers isn’t ready to win a big game like this at this point in the season. If this game took place in Week 10, then maybe I’d have a different view. This game is going to be another big statement by Tony Romo and the ‘Boys to the rest of the NFL that they are the team to beat.
New York Jets (+8.5) over SAN DIEGO
Rationale: I don’t like the way the Chargers have been beaten in the last 2 minutes during the past two weeks. That has to hurt psychologically. Having LaDainian Tomlinson actually being hurt is not going to help the offense. The Jets are still overrated in my eyes, but I think they’ll stay close and lose by a touchdown or so.
Last Week: 9-5-1
Season: 16-14-1
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